Portillo told an audience at the Foodex trade event last week that a yes vote would bring would bring years of political instability, speaking ahead of a similar warning last weekend from the cabinet minister in charge of Scotland Alistair Carmichael.
“For those of you interested in compiling risk registers, the possibility of a yes vote in the Scottish referendum needs to be on your register,” Portillo told a seminar audience at Foodex. “My worry about this is that it will lead to a sustained period of instability in British politics.
‘Another general election within a year’
“And what Prime Minister coming to power in 2015 is going to take decisions long term, knowing that he faces another general election within a year or a year and a few months on an entirely new basis with Scotland excluded?”
If the Scots voted for full independence, a two-year period of instability would follow during negotiations in London and Edinburgh before Scotland assumed its independence in 2016. So whoever wins next year’s UK general election would have little incentive to take decisive action before facing another election a year later, in a ballot that excluded Scotland, he said.
But Portillo thought the prospect of a UK referendum on EU membership was less likely. “There will only be a referendum if the Conservatives win the election and the prospect of the Conservatives winning a majority seems pretty unlikely – having obtained only 37% of the vote last time; not enough to gain a majority,” said Portillo.
“It’s pretty hard to see how the Conservatives could increase their share of the vote between now and the next general election – particularly if they are going to lose 2%, 3% or 4% to UKIP [United Kingdom Independence Party], which makes their struggle all the more.”
In danger of losing the referendum vote
Meanwhile, Carmichael told The Observer newspaper that the unionists were in danger of losing the referendum vote to Scottish first minister Alex Salmond’s unionists because they did not take the threat seriously.
“The danger is that by the time they [the unionists] realise it could happen, it could be too late,” according to an interview published in the newspaper yesterday (March 30).
“Everyone needs to know that this is a serious contest and one which it is not impossible that the nationalists could win.”
Carmichael said that the nationalists had a greater hunger to win a yes vote in the referendum and, in the absence of more aggressive opposition, could build a unstoppable momentum leading to victory.
Voters in Scotland will be asked during the independence referendum on September 18: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”
Don't miss Portillo's exclusive video interview with FoodManufacture.co.uk where he warned food and drink manufacturers face “war on sugar and salt”.
Foodex 2014, organised by the publisher of this website William Reed Business Media, took place at the National Exhibition Centre, near Birmingham between March 24–26.
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