Early indications are that this year's UK wheat harvest will be better than expected, although flour and bread prices are still likely to rise because of higher energy costs, which could add at least 6p to a loaf.
ADM Milling and Rank Hovis have both already announced flour price rises of just under £30/t from September 11 - 15% up on last November.
ADM's md Ian Pinner said: "This is the third year that we have had to accept increased energy costs, which are 30% higher than in November 2005. In addition, global wheat markets have moved up sharply in reaction to supply and demand figures, showing world stocks to be the lowest for 25 years."
The situation has already led to the planned closure of ADM's flour mill in Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire.
Paul Rooke, head of policy and external relations at the Agricultural Industries Confederation, said that any crop price rises would probably be a result of higher processing costs, particularly energy costs.
Arthur Hill, chairman of the Combinable Crops Board of the National Farmers' Union (NFU), added: "There has been a massive increase in energy costs to farmers and bakers alike and this is what lies at the heart of any significant rise in the bread price."
The National Association for British and Irish Millers said the milling industry was "under pressure on all sides" with energy costs having a "domino effect"
As Food Manufacture went to press, ADM said unsettled weather was delaying harvesting of the remaining 30-40% of the UK wheat crop, with concerns that it would be of inferior quality, although final harvesting results for all crops would not be known for three to four weeks.
If the rain continued and more grain needed to be dried, there could yet be a shortage of high-quality milling wheat for bread.
However, the NFU's Hill said that while there were regional variations, most of his members reported satisfactory yields.
"Milling quality is consistently excellent, with a higher than usual proportion reaching bread-making standards," he said.