Aspartame and sucralose could face serious competition in the European intense sweeteners market by late 2011/early 2012 if high purity stevia leaf extracts gain regulatory approval, according to a new report from financial institution Rabobank.
Reb-A a 97% purity stevia extract could scoop 15% (by volume) of the high intensity sweeteners market and 5% of the high fructose corn syrup market within the next five years, predicted the report.
In this (optimistic) scenario, the US alone could demand up to 5,600t/year of Reb-A at a value of $1.4bn.
The sweetener has just been approved for use in France and is likely to be approved throughout Europe by late 2011, assuming it gets a clean bill of health from the European Food Safety Authority.
Unlike some other high-intensity sweeteners, Reb-A is light, heat and acid stable, which makes it ideal for juice drinks and dairy products.
However, firms are chiefly embracing it because it is perceived to be more 'natural' than rivals.
Recent US launches include more upmarket drinks such as Vitamin Water 10 and Odwalla juices by Coca-Cola, and SoBe Lifewater and Tropicana-50 by PepsiCo.
But Reb-A alone is not sufficiently sweet for some carbonated soft drinks, so it sometimes has to be combined with artificial sweeteners to achieve the desired taste.
That could thwart its progress in fizzy drinks if firms could not cash in on 'all-natural' claims, said Rabobank.
However, there is a growing trend for drinks such as Sprite Green, which gets around this problem by combining Reb-A with sugar.
This still enabled fizzy drinks to make low (but not zero) calorie claims and retain their all important 'natural' credentials, noted Rabobank.
"However, it is still not clear how broadly these mid-calorie drinks will be accepted by consumers."