Bold and beautiful
The notion of combining chilli and cocoa seemed pretty outlandish when it first featured in McCormick's influential UK Flavour Forecast in 2008. Five years later it's cropping up everywhere, in products as diverse as chocolate, sauces, ice cream, muffins and even crisps. And all the evidence suggests that bold and unusual flavour combinations are here to stay.
"Some of our predictions can hit right across food segments," says Steve Love, concept development chef with McCormick. "Chipotle is another one. It first appeared in the US Flavour Forecast in 2003 and now it's really mainstream over here. It's even being used in ice cream."
So which of this year's featured flavours are likely to have staying power? Love says it's hard to predict, but points to Japanese Katsu sauce, a Mexican caramel sauce called Cajeta and a Middle Eastern spice blend called Dukka among his top tips. For ingredient suppliers, flavour houses and manufacturers keen to stay "on message", the rapid evolution of trends requires constant development.
For example, the interest in street food that's been bubbling under for the past couple of years is about to land on supermarket shelves in a major way, according to Hugh Evans, marketing manager at Synergy, Carbery's flavourings and savoury ingredients business: "The abundance of emerging cuisines and constant evolution of the street food culture, coupled with consumers' desire to experience new taste sensations, means that the trend is here to stay. In fact, 2013 is likely to see the introduction of a variety of high-profile new street food product ranges."
And while manufacturers may have seen the street food trend approaching, herb and spice specialist EHL Ingredients says companies sometimes need to respond fast when the next new idea surfaces. "Demand for our cardamom shot up after a contestant in The Great British Bake Off used the ingredient in an orange and praline croquembouche with cardamom caramel," says sales director Tasneem Backhouse. "Similarly, sales of Moroccan spice Ras El Hanout increased by 20% after it was praised by Jamie Oliver."
And while different flavour specialists may differ in their top tips for the 'next big thing', everyone agrees that constant innovation is needed to stay on top. "To remain competitive in this evolving market, food manufacturers have recently engaged in a great deal of product innovation," says Evans.
"Much new product development has been characterised by bold and esoteric flavour combinations, alongside a focus on clean-labels. These bold new flavour combinations have been prominent in both savoury and sweet applications, such as snacks, ready meals and yogurts, with examples including wasabi-flavoured dried peas and goat's cheese and sweet chilli-flavoured crisps."
Front runners
In fact, premium crisps are the front runners when it comes to flavour innovation in savoury products, according to Kevin Boyes, business development manager for Savoury Flavours, which specialises in solutions for snacks, sauces and ready meals. And he adds that nowhere in Europe is as adventurous as the UK's hand-cooked crisp market: "The UK is the most advanced market in Europe for seasoning on crisps and snack products, but we're finding more people from elsewhere in Europe now tasting new products and saying they're great, so that could change slowly."
Evans agrees, adding: "The trend for unusual flavours is less pronounced on the continent, with French consumers in particular favouring more traditional profiles."
Boyes says that own-label products from Tesco are leading the pack. Like Evans, he highlights the supermarket's Goat's Cheese and Sticky Chilli Jam flavour as the biggest winner. He also says that popcorn is heading the same way "with people now looking to add a wide variety of savoury flavours".
Across all the premium snack makers, provenance is an increasingly important differentiator, with manufacturers asking for Glastonbury Cheddar, Biggleswade Sweet Chilli or Aberdeen Angus beef. "They're asking for a particular cheddar or spicy flavour from a particular source in the UK, for example," says Boyes.
This drive for provenance is also accelerating demand for more far-flung ingredients. For example, Backhouse highlights promising newcomer lemon myrtle from Australia for both sweet and savoury applications, as well as Mexican oregano, which is a variation on the Mediterranean herb traditionally used in southern-European cooking: "[The stronger taste] means food manufacturers can use less in their recipes and formulas, offering a cost-effective way to create authentic Mexican flavours," she says.
The Mexican trend ties in with a general consensus that Central and South American foods are going to be really important in the coming months. "The next big trend will focus on Brazil, as interest in the country grows as a result of the imminent World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016," says Evans.
"Brazil is making waves," agrees Leanna Noel Mix, director of the Total Menu Team at Kerry Ingredients and Flavours. "The most immediate example is all the variation of coconut as a flavour and ingredient."
Bracingly tart
Beyond national or regional dishes, Noel Mix predicts the strong emergence of products with floral and perfumed flavours as a big trend in 2013. "In this respect, Turkish flavours and cuisine are influential in Europe and the Middle East, with subtle floral flavours like rose, aromatic spices like cardamom and bracingly tart flavours like pomegranate and sour cherry," she says.
She sees the emergence of a "new artistry" in using such unusual flavours as accents to add complexity and differentiation to more established flavours: "For example, a smooth, rich vanilla ice cream is much more indulgent and innovative with a cardamom caramel sauce it tastes exotic and familiar at the same time."
The growing popularity of 'new wave' flavours from Latin America and the Middle East will not displace Asia Pacific flavours, which still have plenty of novelty to offer. "South Korea's emergence as a pop culture and technology powerhouse is also echoed in food trends, with traditional fermentation and spice heat finding fans among chefs worldwide," says Noel Mix. "Taiwan and Hong Kong continue to inspire intriguing flavours in snacks, desserts and beverages. Kerry's team has been able to taste extraordinary combinations of salt, sweet, bitter, sour and umami, all in the same layered ice cream drink, not to mention textural and temperature elements that make for a really exciting consumer experience."
All this novelty is not without its technical challenges, however. While most experts say new flavours do not cause processing or shelf-life issues, the drive for 'healthier', clean-label ingredients can cause problems.
"Many of the ingredients that nutritionally-aware consumers seek to avoid, such as MSG (monosodium glutamate) and salt, play important functional roles in creating the sensory appeal that is expected in products such as crisps, sauces and soups. And while the nutritional value of a product is an increasing concern for today's consumer, flavour continues to be the most important priority," says Evans.
"Natural flavour solutions have become an important component in new product development. Synergy's Saporesse Plus range of natural lactic yeast extracts, for example, enables manufacturers to improve flavour, mouthfeel and umami in a range of savoury applications where additives have been removed, including ready meals and snacks."
