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Beef volumes dip as cost-of-living pressures bite

30-Jul-2024 - Last updated on 30-Jul-2024 at 14:40 GMT

Total volumes of beef fell in 2023, as customers fell prey to cost-of-living pressures. Image: Getty, Thomas Barwick

Reduced demand from retail and takeaways sparked a decline in total beef volumes in 2023, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board’s (AHDB’s) annual beef market outlook.

In 2023, total beef volumes were 1% lower year-on-year, continuing a downward trend reported by the AHDB since 2020. While volumes were expected to rise 1% in 2024, they will still be 5% down compared to pre-pandemic levels.

There was reduced demand for beef in retail and takeaway due to cost-of-living pressures but some boosts as people returned to dining out¹.

“For the year ahead, we expect inflation will continue to fall, and wages will continue to rise,” said AHDB retail and consumer insight analyst Tom Price. “The overall economic outlook will improve, although there are headwinds including world conflicts that have the potential to derail this.

“This means that some shoppers will feel genuinely better off, while others will continue to struggle and look to make savings when they can. After three years of overcoming challenges and reconsidering how to spend their money, we expect any changes in shopping behaviour to be gradual.”

Cheaper cuts

Cheaper primary cuts such as mince were expected to do well in retail, especially if we see another growth in popularity of scratch cooking. However, shoppers will continue to restrict how often and how much they buy in store by reducing waste and stretching meat over more meals.

“It’s hoped a return to more normal summer weather following last year’s washout could benefit beef burger volumes at BBQs,” Price added. “Targeting promotions and campaigns towards key events such as this could help boost sales further.

“This remains a watchpoint as greater demand for these cheaper cuts like mince and burgers could create carcase balance issues for farmers through devaluing the carcase. It is also forecasted that beef will see another strong performance at Christmas.”

Volumes in the out-of-home market were expected to be negatively impacted by the sluggish performance of dining out in the first half of 2024, thanks to the cost-of-living crisis, but will pick up in the second half thanks to the return of warmer weather.

Cost pressures

“With cost pressures on consumers and businesses, smaller numbers of office Christmas parties could limit demand in December,” Price continued. “While forecast lower than 2023, takeaways are the only channel expected to see volumes increase versus 2019.

“This will likely come from increased volumes of burgers due to their relative affordability, which could offset declines in more expensive cuts like steaks, continuing trends we saw in foodservice last year.”

Meanwhile, consumers are increasingly turning to meat during mealtimes, but cost-of-living pressures have driven cost-conscious families to choose cheaper cuts and more filling dishes.

AHDB recommendations for the beef industry to improve demand:

For cheaper cuts, encouraging tasty and versatile beef dishes which play on value for money. Inspire using batch cooking and filling meals, coupled with retail promotional support.
For more premium products, capturing meal occasions lost from more expensive proteins and the out-of-home market by inspiring treat dinners such as fake aways or restaurant quality dine-in recipes.
Addressing health concerns by communicating the health benefits of beef, such as B12, iron and protein.
Encouraging consumers with the right messaging in-store, online, on pack and in foodservice.
In the longer term, look to maintain and build consumer trust, demonstrating where farming values (animal welfare, environmental stewardship and expertise) are shared with consumers. See our consumer reputation landscape hub for more information.