However, this risk can be lowered by switching to less processed foods instead.
The study, published in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, was led by researchers from University College London (UCL) in collaboration with experts at the University of Cambridge and Imperial College London.
Over an almost 11-year period, researchers investigated the relationship between the degree of food processing and type 2 diabetes risk, analysing UPF intake and health outcomes for 311,892 people from eight European countries.
During that time a total of 14,236 people developed type 2 diabetes.
Diabetes risk increased considerably
Digging into data on the diets consumed by the participants, researchers discovered that a 10% increase in the amount of UPFs in a person’s diet is linked to a 17% increase in type 2 diabetes risk.
This was based on an average of nine UPF subgroups assessed by the researchers. The subgroups were as follows:
- Breads, biscuits and breakfast cereals
- Sauces, spreads, and condiments
- Sweets and desserts
- Savoury snacks
- Plant-based alternatives
- Animal-based products
- Ready-to-eat/heat mixed dishes
- Artificially and sugar-sweetened beverages
- Alcoholic drinks
- Other ultra-processed foods
According to the study’s results, the highest risk UPF groups were savoury snacks, animal-based products such as processed meats and ready meals, and sugar and artificially-sweetened beverages.
The degree of processing in foods is most often assessed using the Nova classification, which divides foods into four groups: unprocessed or minimally processed foods (MPF), culinary ingredients (PCI), processed foods (PF) and UPFs.
A cause of the link between UPF consumption and type 2 diabetes remains unconfirmed, although factors including overconsumption and weight gain are thought to play a role.
‘Different risks associated with different types of UPF’
The UCL team are currently conducting a trial to assess the impact of UPFs versus MPFs diets in meeting healthy diet guidance, which they hope will further clarify the results of this study. The results of this trial are expected to be published in 2025.
Samuel Dicken, first author of the study from UCL Division of Medicine, said: “We know that ultra-processed foods are associated with a higher risk of certain diseases such as type 2 diabetes. As expected, our findings confirm this link and show that every 10% increase in the diet from UPF increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes considerably.
“Most studies to date only consider UPF as a whole, but we also suspect that there may be different risks associated with different types of UPF, and the risks of other processing groups have not been well researched. Our analysis goes a step further than previous studies, by looking at all four processing groups in the Nova classification to gauge the impact on type 2 diabetes risk when we substitute UPF with less processed foods, as well as looking at nine UPF subgroups.
“The good news is that replacing UPF with less processed foods was associated with a reduced type 2 diabetes risk.”
Meanwhile, Professor Rachel Batterham, senior author of the study from UCL Division of Medicine, described the results as revealing in confirming that not all UPFs are made equal.
Professor Batterham explained: “Breads and cereals, for example, are a staple of many people’s diets. Based on our results, I think we should treat them differently to savoury snacks or sugary drinks in terms of the dietary advice we provide.”
Professor Marc Gunter, an author of the study from Imperial College London and one of the coordinators of the EPIC study, added: “The findings from this study add to the growing body of research that links consumption of UPF with higher risk of certain chronic diseases including obesity, cardiometabolic diseases and some cancers.
“While such a study cannot determine causal relationships, it does suggest that reducing consumption of some UPF and replacing them with unprocessed, whole foods, might lower risk of type 2 diabetes.”
