According to Finder, 6.4% of adults in the UK are planning to follow a vegan diet in 2025, the equivalent of 3.4m people. Meanwhile, 50% of Gen Zs and 36% of millennials intend to go meat-free this year.
Based on those stark numbers alone, you might have expected to see the plant-based category continuing to post the impressive sales and growth figures that were commonplace at the start of the decade.
But this has not been the case, with NIQ figures revealing a 21% decline in the sales of chilled and frozen meat alternatives in the 12 months to June 2024 compared with the same period two years earlier. Meanwhile, a series of high-profile firms such as Allplants, Meatless Farm and VBites have entered administration since 2023 due to sizeable debts.
So, as we enter the second half of the 2020s, where does plant-based go from here?
Plant-based in 2025
Asked about the current state of the plant-based category, Anthony Warner – a consultant development chef at New Food Innovation who is currently working with AB Mauri on a variety of plant-based ingredients – contends that the recent slowdown should not have come as a shock to industry observers.
“As someone who has worked in food innovation for over 25 years, I have never known a single food trend become so dominant and explosive as plant-based between 2019 and 2022,” he told Food Manufacture.
“It is perhaps unsurprising that there has been a significant drop off over the past two years, especially within the wider economic picture. The decline has been stark and has impacted many companies and individuals, but over the longer term, the five to six year trend is still upwards.”
Helen Breewood, research and resource manager at nonprofit the Good Food Institute (GFI) Europe, largely shared Warner’s analysis, describing the past two years as “difficult” for many plant-based manufacturers and brands.
Breewood attributed the sea change to inflationary pressures and the cost of living crisis, which she believes have had an outsized impact on smaller and newer categories within food and drink. Despite this, she maintains it’s not all gloom and doom.
“Our recent analysis found retail sales of plant-based foods grew by 5.5% across six European countries to reach £4.4bn last year,” Brewood told Food Manufacture.
“We found the already well-established plant-based milk category is expanding, some emerging plant-based categories – particularly cream and cheese – are growing, and some products are beginning to compete with their animal-based counterparts on price.”
If the economic conditions surrounding the plant-based category have changed, Warner argued that the necessity of reducing the emissions associated with food and drink production has not.
He explained: “The drivers of plant-based are still there. There is a burning need to address the environmental impact of our food system, both in terms of emissions and land-use. The only way to do this is to create a global transition from animal derived proteins to plant proteins, especially beef and dairy.”
One plant-based player that has not taken a step back in recent years is the Vegan Food Group, a firm that owns brands such as VFC and Meatless Farm.
The group’s managing director, Richard Coggon, told Food Manufacture that the category has undergone a “period of rationalisation” during which retailers have streamlined their ranges and focused on “core offerings”.
“The plant-based category experienced rapid growth in recent years, driven by a wave of new brands, innovation, investment, and heightened consumer interest,” Coggon said.
“Rather than [this period of rationalisation] signifying ‘the death of plant-based’, this shift reflects a maturing category, with brands prioritising staple products that meet consumers’ weekly shopping needs over novelty items.”
Vegan pizza producer One Planet Pizza has also managed to grow in spite of the headwinds, securing nationwide listings with Morrisons and Asda during the past 12 months. Nonetheless, co-founder Joe Hill has noticed a change in attitude towards the plant-based space from both retailers and consumers.
“It’s true that recent challenges have contributed to a much slower growth than previous years, leading to several high-profile companies facing financial difficulties and even going under,” Hill told Food manufacture.
“This has led to negative media coverage, sparking concerns about sustainability in the plant-based market and calls for more robust business models and sensible valuations.”
He also pointed to the debate around ultra processed foods (UPF) as a potential reason for a reduction in demand for plant-based alternatives.
“There has been an association, sometimes rightly and sometimes wrongly, between alternative plant-based meats and UPF ingredients, and the meat and dairy industry has used this opportunity to try to promote their own products,” Hill argued.
“It can be frustratingly easy for many to simplify this whole market down to meat-free or even a handful of more processed meat mimics. It is the products and brands in this sub-category that have suffered the majority of negative media and backlash from the meat and dairy industries, which has unfairly used [a few examples] to claim the whole plant-based bubble has burst. The bigger picture is much more encouraging and exciting.”
As a company that manufactures both vegan and non-vegan products, The Compleat Food Group’s has monitored the recent downturn in plant-based sales closely.
“The chilled plant-based category has faced undeniable challenges over the last two years,” the firm’s chief marketing officer Yvonne Adam told Food Manufacture.
“This is partly down to flexitarian consumers, who had previously driven market growth, switching back to cheaper meat-based alternatives as the cost of living continues to impact household budgets.”
Compleat-owned brand Squeaky Bean has seen success by attempting appeal to flexitarians, vegans and vegetarians, Adam continued, adding that “interest in plant-based eating remains strong”.
“Consumers [are still] seeking ethical, health-focused and sustainable options, offering growth potential for innovative and adaptable brands.”
Staying positive
As Hill elucidated, the media coverage of the plant-based category and the woes of some firms within it has likely had an impact on how it is viewed more broadly. However, plenty of data shows that a large portion of society remains interested in reducing their meat and dairy consumption.
“One of the most positive trends to emerge from [GFI Europe’s] data is that plant-based options are becoming mainstream options for millions of consumers, with significant proportions of German, Spanish and British households buying these products more than once last year,” Breewood said.
This finding was also backed up by a Food Standards Agency (FSA) survey from September 2024 which revealed that 27% of UK households currently consume plant-based meat alternatives. And Breewood has seen retailers respond accordingly.
“In the UK, there are emerging signs that retailers are responding to this trend by making plant-based items more convenient for shoppers, with M&S and Tesco having changed the location of some of their plant-based products so they sit alongside animal-based counterparts rather than being confined to their own section,” she explained.
Like Hill, Warner believes that the UPF debate has impacted the market for plant-based foods. While he professed to being “no fan of the UPF classification system”, Warner said its growing influence has had some positive impacts such as “driving manufacturers and retailers towards finding cleaner label solutions and reducing the complexity of products”.
“Hopefully, this will help restore consumer trust in plant-based foods, and help people understand that plant-based products are actually made from plants, not concocted in test tubes,” he added.
Hill offered a similar conclusion, explaining that it is important to distinguish between plant-based diets and meat alternatives.
“There’s an increasing consumer focus on health and wellness, prompting many manufacturers to create healthier plant-based options with improved nutritional profiles,” he said.
“From the rise in popularity of wholefood ingredients like the humble bean, to the growing appetite for plant proteins like tofu and tempeh. People are increasingly swapping out traditional meat for more sustainable, simple protein sources.”
This slight shift in consumer preference can be a good thing for the sector Hill believes, as it has brought about more variety within the category beyond meat and dairy substitutes. Recent launches have included snacks, desserts and convenient meal solutions, which can in turn help attract a broader audience.
“Brands like Brave, Boundless and Savourists are all creating great-tasting snacks made from bean, peas, nuts and seeds – plants all packed with fibre, protein and other benefits. While exciting new companies like Superfoodio are injecting life into on-the-go with its range of peanut butter based snacks,” he added.
Compleat has also noted the growth in demand for “cleaner label and whole-food based options”, which Adam agreed is a positive evolution.
“Plant-based brands are seeing this opportunity and creating more products that use natural ingredients such as vegetables, grains, tofu, and legumes, which is helping to drive more shoppers to the category,” Adam added.
Another encouraging trend which she believes will drive future sales for the category, has been the emergence “accidentally vegan” products.
“By de-emphasising ‘veganness’ and focusing on the flavours and textures in their own right, the products attract a wider audience and help challenge negative perceptions of plant-based foods,” she explained.
The Vegan Food Group expanded beyond meat alternatives in February 2024 with the acquisition of German tofu producer Tofutown – a sign that the firm also understands the necessity of diversification within the modern plant-based market.
“Tofu innovation is flourishing, reflecting growing interest in versatile, protein-rich, and minimally processed plant-based options,” said Coggon.
“Consumers are also gravitating towards veg-centric meals that highlight whole, recognisable ingredients such as beans, pulses, lentils, and root vegetables. This trend offers a significant opportunity to inspire new plant-based dishes and foster greater familiarity with these versatile ingredients.”
Innovation in plant-based
Despite the broadening of the category’s horizons that was discussed in the previous section, the need for innovation and evolution remains as important as ever.
As Hill explained, plant-based food producers have now fully realised that “ultimately taste is king”, as retailers and consumers cannot be tempted to invest in products based on their sustainability or health credentials alone.
“The overall quality and taste of products is improving as ranges are being more heavily scrutinised and shelf space is harder to maintain than ever,” he said.
Therefore, continued innovation in the areas of taste, health, sustainability, marketing and packaging is the difference between thriving and battling for survival.
Warner pointed to plant-based cheese as a product area where plenty of innovation is taking place, but admitted that there is a “good distance” to travel before there is mass access to cheese alternatives that are “delicious and have the nutritional equivalence with dairy”.
“There are some good cream cheeses and soft cheeses out there, but when it comes to the volume products like mozzarella or cheddar, there is a lot of quality compromise,” Warner explained.
“It is fair to say that no one has cracked it yet, but there is a lot of research and innovation taking place from a lot of big players.”
Williams agreed that in many areas the plant-based category is still in its infancy, and as such it’s essential to develop next-generation products that can “more closely meet consumer expectations around taste, price and nutrition”.
When asked about the innovations that GFI Europe is most excited about, Williams referenced firms including Heura, Planted and Happy Ocean Foods.
“They are using smart processing techniques that can help develop products with high protein content while retaining more of the health-promoting properties of the whole plant ingredients these foods are made from.”
In the UK specifically, Williams pointed to the University of Leeds spin-out, MicroLub: “It has developed a technology aiming to replicate the sensory experience of fat without the health drawbacks, [which] is a good example of how academic innovations can offer new opportunities for companies.”
Fish alternatives have been slightly slower to emerge than their meat-free counterparts, but Adam explained that Compleat has been particularly focused on innovation in this space: “Squeaky Bean has tapped into this with the launch of its Beechwood Smoked Salmon Style Slices and Tuna Style Flakes, both of which match the taste, texture and appearance of their fish counterparts, as well as some health benefits with Omega 3 in the Tuna Style Flakes.”
At the same time, the business has noted growing interest among consumers for clean label products, especially those made with vegetable-based ingredients.
“Squeaky Bean’s Super Grain & Vegetable Burger is the category’s first fermented rye burger,” Adam explained.
“It delivers a satisfying texture with ingredients like red pepper, carrot, and fermented rye grains, avoiding the need for emulsifiers or stabilisers.”
Looking at growth in demand for ‘better-for-you’ products, Warner touched on some of the specific methods that food scientists are currently experimenting with.
“Replacing protein isolates with less processed protein concentrates can hugely reduce the carbon impact of a product and may potentially have health benefits,” he said.
“Understanding the impact of these changes is an area of study, and there is some really interesting innovation to create really high-quality ingredients and products from less processed ingredients.”
As for the clean label trend, Warner pointed to work focused around removing methylcellulose, carrageenan, emulsifiers and “other ingredients of concern”.
“Use of enzyme-based solutions has a lot of potential, as does developing a better understanding the natural gelling, structural or emulsification properties of plant protein ingredients,” he added.
As for what’s next, Warner highlighted the rise of hybrid products – i.e. products where meat or dairy has been partially replaced with plant-based ingredients.
“There is a strong challenge of consumer acceptance in retail, but this area is gathering huge pace in out of home, where scope 3 emissions are such a driver,” he explained.
“In retail, it probably needs a couple of well-resourced brands to really clearly communicate the benefits of these products to really open up the market.”
Getting back on track
While this article has perhaps displayed that the outlook for plant-based is not as bleak as some may suggest, a slowdown has occurred in recent years.
For the category to rediscover the vibes of 2019 to 2022, Coggon said the key will be achieving “price parity” with meat and dairy.
“Addressing affordability will enable plant-based options to compete more effectively and broaden consumer accessibility,” he suggested.
Breewood agreed that price, in conjunction with taste, is a topic that the plant-based category must take seriously: “With the right product improvements, price reductions and marketing efforts, other plant-based categories will be able to emulate [the success of dairy-free milk] – as emerging categories such as plant-based cream now appear to be doing.”
Warner also acknowledged the role of price and taste, but also urged the category as a whole to work at developing greater levels of trust with the public.
“The sector perhaps suffers from a lack of trust, and the only way to improve that is to act in a trustworthy way,” he said.
“Be honest and open about what is in products, and scrupulous about making any health claims. I hear a lot of nonsense from companies and influencers operating in the plant-based space, making unfounded claims about the harms of animal products and positioning plant-based as a health and environmental panacea.
“As an industry, plant-based needs to stop making people feel guilty about eating animal derived products and instead work on making plant-based foods compelling in their own right. Plant-based companies need to engage with meat and dairy consumers if they want to be successful, rather than alienating them.”
In addition to building trust, Coggon called for the sector to make more compelling arguments about the quality and contents of plant-based products.
“[We can address] concerns about UPFs by focusing on the tangible health benefits of meat alternatives vs their meat counterparts, such as reduced saturated fat and cholesterol, alongside increased fibre content,” he continued.
“It’s important to clarify misconceptions surrounding UPFs, as the categorisation doesn’t correlate directly with nutritional value. Independent research from organisations like the Food Foundation reinforces this point.”
This was echoed by Adam, who also re-emphasised the importance of tasty, healthy and regular NPD: “Future innovation must focus on reformulating to reduce additives while improving nutritional density. By developing products that are minimally processed, ethically made, and use whole foods, brands can meet the expectations of health-conscious consumers and increase plant-based consumption.”
As the statistics referenced at the start of this article display, a lot of people are now following vegan or meat-free diets, and there a many more to be won over. The plant-based category has come a long way in a short space of time, but as we enter 2025 there is a clear understanding among manufacturers and observers alike that it still has untapped potential.
